Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f7abb40bdd61477c1c662bdf755cab2da0a24673de84c72171aa43ad0aedbf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 36c | 4,145$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.53 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 1,899$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.82 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bb…8295backed Yes | 53c | 1,272$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 75c | 432.45$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 32c | 395.37$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.93 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 377.74$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 371.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 302.44$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 246.89$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 204$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…894abacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 189.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 186.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 12c | 180.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 21c | 175.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 175.27$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 52c | 159.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 154.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 149$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 25c | 134.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 12c | 124.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 70c | 115.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 115$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 113.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 20c | 112.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 11c | 107.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 107.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 104.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 101.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 21c | 98.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 19c | 93.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 29c | 82.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 73.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 30c | 72.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 20c | 71.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 50.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 39c | 47.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 25c | 46.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 41c | 43.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…6805backed Yes | 32c | 40.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 41c | 36.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 74c | 34.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cc…e896backed No | 32c | 32.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 37c | 27.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed No | 67c | 24.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 71c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 48c | 23.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 76c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 66c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…e6d9backed No | 55c | 18.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 39°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.