Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee11058f842ea3c0254197bef35b16973654562a87b6b32f8df9a43b1f66951d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 12,245$9,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,173.03 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 8,543$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 2,049$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.29 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,704$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,431$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.54 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 999.82$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 792.39$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 52c | 726.46$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 58c | 588.23$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.29 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 58c | 500$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.93 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 51c | 488.85$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.58 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 25c | 440.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 382.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 44c | 342.39$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.57 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 34c | 320.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 20c | 273$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea2…0f20backed Yes | 67c | 254.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 45c | 231.79$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 225.2$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 41c | 212.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 32c | 211.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 210.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 5c | 209.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…894abacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 194.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 193.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 63c | 191.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 188.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 187.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 14c | 184.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 166.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 166.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 45c | 158.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 23c | 149$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 144.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 45c | 140.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 52c | 125$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 49c | 122.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 116.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 113.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 21c | 112.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 110.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 41c | 107.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 104.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 104.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 47c | 101.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…a042backed Yes | 31c | 97.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 95.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 16c | 92.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 91.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 31c | 91.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 88.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 19c | 87.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 61c | 87.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 16c | 83.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 83.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 82.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 82.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 79.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 78.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 36c | 77.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 54c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 76.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 40c | 74.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 73.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 68.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 68.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 28c | 68.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 51c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 41c | 61.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 19c | 60.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 38c | 58.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 36c | 56.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 49.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 55c | 44.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 44.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 42.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 39°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.