NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1765e379ae117650db78a292dd3f85e7a7619a928d4d2af1dde734a4b88be406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 48c | 420.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 216.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 191.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 55c | 180.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 164.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 46c | 91.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 65.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Over | 17c | 61.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 45c | 53.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 55c | 38.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Under | 56c | 35.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5this page
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Hawks won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Wizards vs. HawksHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.