NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b692320106e7968847f30c8abe727b38b867eed2f4da8b396c19a48af53e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 10,564$5,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,176.33 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 51c | 7,392$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.85 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 5,771$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,240$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Under | 54c | 2,115$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.05 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 48c | 1,957$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.36 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 30c | 1,250$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 30c | 848.83$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.49 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 48c | 755.18$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.69 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 726.75$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.26 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 54c | 426.91$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.18 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 50c | 400.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 315.34$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 43c | 256$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 252.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 50c | 238.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 199.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…e6e5backed Under | 68c | 162.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Under | 66c | 151.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 109.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 50c | 103.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Under | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 97.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 88.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 30c | 82.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 51c | 70.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 67.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 51c | 56.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 50.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 46c | 42.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 35c | 39.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 38.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…a10dbacked Under | 53c | 32.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 31.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 49c | 31.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed Under | 51c | 23.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4b36backed Under | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5this page
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)Hawks won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Wizards vs. HawksHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.