NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ceeba7831351589249939a16aeb3c98bf371b55d90d71460b5d973d22864a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Hawks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c86…d939backed Hawks | 47c | 3,819$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.78 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 60c | 2,696$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.34 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Wizards | 58c | 2,303$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.46 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 53c | 1,282$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.31 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Wizards | 54c | 1,110$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Wizards | 16c | 607.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 53c | 584.45$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.76 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Wizards | 59c | 550$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Wizards | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 32c | 457.44$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 40c | 384.11$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.83 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 80c | 321$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 53c | 317.53$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Hawks | 47c | 302.34$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Hawks | 42c | 300$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Wizards | 56c | 277.69$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.74 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 42c | 257.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Wizards | 57c | 205.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Hawks | 42c | 204.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hawks | 40c | 181.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wizards | 52c | 176.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Hawks | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Wizards | 51c | 123.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Wizards | 58c | 113.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Wizards | 56c | 101$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Wizards | 52c | 100.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wizards | 59c | 88.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Wizards | 58c | 83.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Hawks | 54c | 60.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Hawks | 40c | 54.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hawks | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Wizards | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Hawks | 41c | 49.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Hawks | 52c | 47.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Wizards | 31c | 45.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Wizards | 32c | 43.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Hawks | 42c | 39.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Hawks | 47c | 38.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Hawks | 45c | 36.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Hawks | 78c | 30.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Hawks | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Wizards | 60c | 17.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-12.5)this page
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Hawks (-10.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-11.5)Hawks won
- Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Wizards vs. HawksHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.