TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Hawks: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,758 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e6e…be00backed Under50c2,800$1,400 inWon+$1,40045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over50c2,162$1,081 inLost-$1,080.872,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over50c1,600$800 inLost-$80064651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over50c1,119$560 inLost-$559.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$50026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon+$50029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under49c899.99$444 inWon+$45680737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c700$350 inLost-$3506,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c592.01$307 inLost-$307.058,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Over50c552$276 inLost-$27622648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c541.5$271 inLost-$271.274,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over50c528$264 inLost-$264.154,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c523$256 inWon+$266.734,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Under50c500$250 inWon+$2508547.1%40 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Over51c388.41$200 inLost-$20015450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c301.45$150 inLost-$149.963,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Over49c180$88 inLost-$88.215543.9%68 W · 87 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1452…3c00backed Under50c151.62$76 inWon+$75.814447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Over54c130.2$70 inLost-$70.3143543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c130$66 inWon+$63.73,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over51c110$56 inLost-$56.191148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under46c105.91$49 inWon+$57.192,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under45c103.45$47 inWon+$56.663,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a36…428fbacked Under51c100$51 inWon+$495836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under49c62.99$31 inWon+$32.121,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over51c47.26$24 inLost-$24.272,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under40c40.82$16 inWon+$24.6739047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Under50c40$20 inWon+$2051946.8%243 W · 276 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabae…d62dbacked Over50c40$20 inLost-$208145.7%37 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under63c39.68$25 inWon+$14.6865872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under43c38$16 inWon+$21.665,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over50c37.5$19 inLost-$18.7562844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Over52c32.65$17 inLost-$1736350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under50c28.36$14 inWon+$14.1890357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x669b…6557backed Under52c26.92$14 inWon+$12.925100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under48c25.15$12 inWon+$13.0345251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b87…f42dbacked Under50c20$10 inWon+$107544%33 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.