Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: T1 vs VARREL - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18bfad37510850ef98aa63965cef4c9c7001e30f10232dbf0da76fa79af66441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VARRELof T1, VARREL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a8…6427backed VARREL | 46c | 3,814$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.5 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…5b3ebacked VARREL | 55c | 1,026$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.66 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed T1 | 75c | 815.77$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.73 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed VARREL | 66c | 796.7$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.97 | 260 | 51.9%135 W · 125 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked T1 | 78c | 738.16$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.28 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed VARREL | 26c | 615.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.94 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…81b0backed T1 | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed T1 | 74c | 574.88$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.83 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…57d1backed T1 | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed T1 | 64c | 522.27$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.65 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed T1 | 68c | 457.42$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.67 | 534 | 42.1%225 W · 309 L | -15.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed VARREL | 29c | 452.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.43 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4850backed VARREL | 28c | 419.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.69 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked T1 | 69c | 400.74$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked VARREL | 45c | 338.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.53 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…b262backed T1 | 70c | 308$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked T1 | 73c | 301$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.27 | 281 | 43.4%122 W · 159 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed T1 | 71c | 288.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.33 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed T1 | 24c | 270$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 238 | 36.1%86 W · 152 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed T1 | 37c | 232.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…5f4abacked VARREL | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed T1 | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…dd5dbacked VARREL | 62c | 194.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed T1 | 65c | 193.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked T1 | 78c | 180$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed VARREL | 73c | 179.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed VARREL | 47c | 176.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed VARREL | 32c | 171.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 361 | 45.7%165 W · 196 L | +22.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed VARREL | 27c | 155.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 264 | 47.3%125 W · 139 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked T1 | 32c | 154.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked T1 | 65c | 154.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed T1 | 17c | 148.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…b387backed VARREL | 50c | 145.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…4b6fbacked VARREL | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…d9f0backed T1 | 37c | 141.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…9b5fbacked VARREL | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed VARREL | 43c | 131.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed VARREL | 35c | 128$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 110 | 42.7%47 W · 63 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked T1 | 45c | 127.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked T1 | 66c | 124.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed VARREL | 28c | 119.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked VARREL | 67c | 113.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed T1 | 65c | 112$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 223 | 46.6%104 W · 119 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed T1 | 80c | 108.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked VARREL | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 389 | 50.6%197 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked T1 | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked VARREL | 26c | 98.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…df54backed VARREL | 31c | 97.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked VARREL | 71c | 93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…20bdbacked VARREL | 33c | 91.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…be15backed VARREL | 67c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1b…dcf3backed T1 | 64c | 77.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed VARREL | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked T1 | 24c | 71.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 407 | 31.7%129 W · 278 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…7262backed VARREL | 38c | 66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed VARREL | 21c | 65.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed VARREL | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked T1 | 74c | 60.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked VARREL | 29c | 59.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked T1 | 44c | 58.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked VARREL | 30c | 55.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed T1 | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 201 | 60.2%121 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked VARREL | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…b109backed VARREL | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | +22.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed VARREL | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked T1 | 62c | 44.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…9100backed VARREL | 32c | 43.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed T1 | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 811 | 34.9%283 W · 528 L | -60.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed T1 | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed T1 | 27c | 37.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed T1 | 67c | 36.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a334backed VARREL | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd48…0ea2backed VARREL | 65c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed T1 | 73c | 31.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…50c1backed VARREL | 68c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…4985backed VARREL | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked T1 | 49c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked T1 | 64c | 15.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…2b6dbacked VARREL | 68c | 15.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: T1 vs VARREL - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs VARREL (+3.5)VARREL won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs VARREL (+4.5)VARREL won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5)VARREL won
- Valorant: T1 vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group OmegaVARREL won
- Valorant: T1 vs VARREL - Map 2 WinnerVARREL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.