Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Holmgren vs. Machac
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18cb2b65de6d991158472bb6e94d90fe2d129689e5483bc5fc031e0593abd886
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Holmgrenof Holmgren, Machac
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Holmgren | 48c | 24,456$11,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,642.33 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Machac | 50c | 17,880$8,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,970.5 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Machac | 55c | 13,808$7,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,561.2 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Holmgren | 37c | 6,901$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,351.51 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Holmgren | 50c | 6,134$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,067 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Machac | 44c | 3,106$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Machac | 53c | 3,103$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.53 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Machac | 63c | 2,381$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.38 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Machac | 68c | 2,319$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.75 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Holmgren | 12c | 2,028$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.83 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Machac | 54c | 2,000$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…91f9backed Holmgren | 19c | 1,985$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.16 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed Machac | 69c | 1,484$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 68cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Machac | 65c | 1,442$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.59 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Machac | 52c | 1,130$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.85 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…9426backed Holmgren | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fc…1573backed Holmgren | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Holmgren | 30c | 1,000$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.42 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Holmgren | 29c | 935$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.35 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Machac | 62c | 888$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.28 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Holmgren | 59c | 850$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.72 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…2192backed Machac | 46c | 720$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Machac | 59c | 673$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.06 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Holmgren | 35c | 650$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.5 | 107 | 29%31 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Holmgren | 16c | 625$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…52b5backed Holmgren | 42c | 612.19$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.41 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Holmgren | 17c | 599.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.44 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Holmgren | 17c | 577.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.78 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Holmgren | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Holmgren | 40c | 521.83$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.58 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Holmgren | 37c | 502.35$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.81 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Holmgren | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…0659backed Holmgren | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Holmgren | 16c | 468.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.75 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Holmgren | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Machac | 53c | 410$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Machac | 61c | 407.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.09 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Holmgren | 19c | 394.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…6e64backed Holmgren | 26c | 385.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.54 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…6630backed Machac | 49c | 332.77$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Holmgren | 49c | 328.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.07 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Machac | 50c | 303.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Machac | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Machac | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Holmgren | 17c | 299.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.26 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e879backed Holmgren | 16c | 293.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…d1dcbacked Machac | 46c | 280$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Holmgren | 18c | 276.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.96 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab5…37c4backed Holmgren | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Holmgren | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…96d6backed Machac | 52c | 244.23$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Machac | 53c | 226.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Holmgren | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Holmgren | 52c | 199.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Holmgren | 15c | 198.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.5 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…4ebabacked Holmgren | 15c | 190.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Holmgren | 35c | 173.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.61 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…dde4backed Holmgren | 40c | 172.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Holmgren | 60c | 167.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…efaebacked Holmgren | 16c | 149.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…53e9backed Machac | 70c | 141.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…b35abacked Holmgren | 15c | 136.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Holmgren | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Machac | 53c | 130.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…e20fbacked Machac | 58c | 127$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Machac | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…a3cabacked Machac | 48c | 107.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…6a9ebacked Machac | 79c | 106.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Holmgren | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Machac | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Machac | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…4347backed Holmgren | 51c | 66.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Holmgren | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Machac | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…c51dbacked Holmgren | 20c | 59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…c43abacked Machac | 64c | 54.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Holmgren | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Machac | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8c2bbacked Machac | 59c | 26.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.