Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x196dd76dcf77d1405b11769721e28c9d6f0dd876f1217491c215bdfd298dac5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 60c | 899.78$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.12 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 557.05$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 39c | 518.24$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.14 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 54c | 366.87$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 41c | 332.66$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.92 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 33c | 311.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.15 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 221.66$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 221.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 198$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 66c | 181.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 180.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 37c | 168.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 40c | 152.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 151.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 142.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 56c | 127.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 40c | 120.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 115$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 42c | 114$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 113.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 70c | 111.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 55c | 109.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 67c | 96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 48c | 95.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 78.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 34c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 68.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 40c | 67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 38c | 66.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 57c | 64.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 44c | 58.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 56.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 55.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 39c | 50.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 47.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 64c | 46.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 55c | 44.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 43.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 38c | 43.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 62c | 40.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 58c | 38.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…b206backed Yes | 50c | 38.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…3458backed Yes | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…8003backed Yes | 60c | 31.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 31.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 31.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 31.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 67c | 31.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 60c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 41c | 30.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 29.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 54c | 29.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 57c | 25.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked Yes | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 60c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…1d78backed Yes | 62c | 16.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.