Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d88f3a2ca618fdcb15dd2a2f721fb7ff88400ac483db403097e07c42861dd55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 1,038$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 561.56$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.72 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 7c | 342.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 310$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.99 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 277.61$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 263.26$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.64 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 233.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 216.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 30c | 199.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 26c | 190$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 173.82$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 167.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 148.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 146.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 142.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 124.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 112.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 39c | 75.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 32c | 72.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 68.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 30c | 66.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 59.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 58.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 41c | 56.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 65c | 51.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 41c | 48.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked Yes | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 47.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 47.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 68c | 44.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 70c | 37.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 75c | 32.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 62c | 32.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 31.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 31.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 31.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 40c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 29.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 27.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 72c | 26.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 57c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 25.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 60c | 23.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 64c | 20.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.