NFL · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Broncos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ab407b7256e656ca3012eedafbe618da94b64af62bb78ef03001e37e3da041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Cardinals, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cardinals | 38c | 10,032$3,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790.21 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Cardinals | 1c | 8,955$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Broncos | 61c | 8,444$5,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.62 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cardinals | 39c | 7,000$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 39c | 6,750$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Broncos | 61c | 6,031$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,371.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cardinals | 4c | 3,083$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Broncos | 61c | 2,775$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.25 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Cardinals | 40c | 2,580$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Broncos | 60c | 1,600$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.83 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +12.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Broncos | 61c | 1,254$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.95 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Cardinals | 38c | 999.96$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.98 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed Broncos | 62c | 842.69$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.4 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Broncos | 61c | 755.88$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.52 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Cardinals | 6c | 664.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Cardinals | 41c | 583.27$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.14 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Cardinals | 38c | 499.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…7102backed Broncos | 62c | 358.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Broncos | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Cardinals | 9c | 281.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Cardinals | 38c | 264$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 40c | 250.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Cardinals | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 40c | 249.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Broncos | 62c | 240$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Cardinals | 32c | 232.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cardinals | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Broncos | 62c | 142.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Broncos | 61c | 133$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Broncos | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Broncos | 62c | 116.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cardinals | 12c | 115.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cardinals | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Cardinals | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Cardinals | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Cardinals | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9173…bb48backed Cardinals | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fea…6c44backed Broncos | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…cac6backed Broncos | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Broncos | 67c | 74.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cardinals | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cardinals | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…7761backed Broncos | 62c | 67.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Broncos | 75c | 66.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Cardinals | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Broncos | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Broncos | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Cardinals | 42c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Cardinals | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Broncos | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Broncos | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…0f46backed Broncos | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Broncos | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…b321backed Broncos | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec9…6929backed Broncos | 61c | 21.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Broncos | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Broncos | 62c | 16.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Broncos | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.