Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19ae866e6101755219fe648dbca1419908cadad55036a03fb9e6db3a329146ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,683$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.73 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 547.48$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.62 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 420.31$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked No | 64c | 358.24$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 316.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 294.67$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 35c | 284.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 253.45$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 196.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 7c | 186.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 175.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 155.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 154.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 140.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 138.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked Yes | 29c | 135.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 122.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 117.31$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 59c | 108.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 25c | 107.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 105.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 104.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 102.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 84.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…df71backed Yes | 39c | 75.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 68.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 66.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…19bfbacked Yes | 43c | 62.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 62.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 41.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked No | 60c | 41.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…f1b9backed No | 60c | 40.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 34.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…088bbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 57c | 31.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 43c | 28.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 25.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 25.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 60c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 60c | 17.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.