TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb31…3952backed Yes65c927.18$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.282948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No33c750.48$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1776924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes56c547.14$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.831,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes59c500$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5718945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No39c474.03$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.74,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes64c469.07$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0764446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes54c460.81$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8122740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes63c455.83$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5224542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes64c425.13$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.892,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No33c420$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.644366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No42c319.13$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.731,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c316.15$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.454,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No39c269.06$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.074,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No6c251.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c249.53$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.326,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c225.72$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No33c217.77$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcea2…0f20backed Yes66c196.72$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No44c175.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.722,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No37c155.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.091,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f2…8690backed Yes66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.523658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes62c145.43$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.431643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes64c143.87$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.585,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No38c140.42$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.364761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No33c138.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.441,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No36c131.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.123959%23 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes62c128.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1161249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57a2…e032backed No40c120.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.575457.4%31 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No39c117.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.884,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No37c115.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.442,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes65c109.84$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.253,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.445,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No44c97.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.033,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No39c91.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.182,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e9…9a18backed No41c88.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.264753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No38c85.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.231,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.372965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes63c66.73$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6914646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x612e…7aa4backed No41c60.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No39c55.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6527247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No38c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1927169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No35c48.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.071,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7efd…df20backed Yes77c46.31$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.456258.1%36 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No33c46.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2313337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…de16backed Yes51c42.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.661181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.32per pick49cpaid+78.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x849b…0543backed No47c41.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.731145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No39c41.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2920347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.416946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.551,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.415545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58bf…2ef8backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes54c35.87$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No47c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.494,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes57c34.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0546148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No33c34.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11b0…f988backed Yes68c34.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2215556.1%87 W · 68 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471d…32cebacked Yes68c34.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1916656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No39c34.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.633,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1854…2106backed No49c34.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c33.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.873,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x796b…92c3backed Yes51c30.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.961369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.454154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes55c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.513340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No38c29.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.323,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe54f…40febacked No40c27.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.93137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-84%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No41c27.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1857150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No41c27.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No41c27.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.654,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd334…1c8abacked Yes66c24.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-49.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8124451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes68c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3766758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes66c22.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7716440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes66c22.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6110166.3%67 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46cc…3097backed No46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123363.6%21 W · 12 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes71c21.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1876936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes60c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.334,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes67c20.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.865756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1de2…7273backed Yes60c20.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.011163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da7…9861backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd98…1211backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes62c16.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3730652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x074e…b9d1backed Yes73c15.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.124151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.54362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.