Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19c7d4473bcec821ff85ba23cbfcad24e181e428bb28985e088f3560c9d837d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Under | 57c | 2,700$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 46c | 2,200$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 1,789$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.69 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 50c | 1,581$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.51 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 1,540$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.62 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 30c | 902.92$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.55 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 34c | 716.32$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 72c | 682.78$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 32c | 569.72$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 21c | 453.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 74c | 436.16$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 53c | 402.49$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 29c | 372.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 18c | 335$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 70c | 320$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 42c | 315.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.13 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 65c | 307.21$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 11c | 264.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 20c | 236.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 228.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 60c | 214.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 200.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 189.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 19c | 184.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Under | 75c | 178.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 172.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4529backed Under | 63c | 156.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 44c | 152.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 46c | 136.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 18c | 136.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 57c | 131.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 51c | 118.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 34c | 117.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 50c | 77.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 53c | 76.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 52c | 73.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 54c | 72.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 27c | 66.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 78c | 61.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 31c | 56.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 19c | 52.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Under | 59c | 52.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 67c | 50.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 40c | 46.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 56c | 45.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 43c | 44.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 70c | 44.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Under | 58c | 43.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 52c | 42.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 53c | 42.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…2bb0backed Over | 49c | 41.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 49c | 39.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be9…368dbacked Under | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 54c | 38.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Over | 31c | 36.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Under | 73c | 33.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 72c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Under | 67c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 67c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Melbourne City FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Melbourne City FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Melbourne City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.