TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,476 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over48c8,300$4,014 inLost-$4,014.11,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44d4…1970backed Under53c3,936$2,085 inWon+$1,850.7716752.1%87 W · 80 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under52c3,000$1,560 inWon+$1,4402,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under52c2,513$1,307 inWon+$1,206.294,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c1,741$825 inLost-$824.719,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under53c1,200$636 inWon+$56445647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over48c489.99$235 inLost-$235.23,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under61c390.11$237 inWon+$153.438,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c368.5$170 inLost-$169.515,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over47c300$141 inLost-$14125846.9%121 W · 137 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under54c222.21$120 inWon+$102.222,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Over46c217.39$100 inLost-$10033837.3%126 W · 212 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Over48c102$49 inLost-$48.9618339.3%72 W · 111 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61bf…9862backed Under54c77.52$42 inWon+$35.664652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5264…54cebacked Under54c60.91$33 inWon+$28.024839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0af…6fc6backed Over49c56.61$28 inLost-$27.744654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under52c44.69$23 inWon+$21.291,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over47c36.79$17 inLost-$17.291,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55aa…4f8ebacked Under54c32.87$18 inWon+$15.128344.6%37 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Under51c31.55$16 inWon+$15.4613750.4%69 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over47c28.67$13 inLost-$13.4750841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Under52c22.42$12 inWon+$10.7663447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c21.68$10 inLost-$10.413,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.