NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12eb5a8c13d4f1b2deaa4c62bd17a57cd9a6eed67f395345cb5fd3417db92acc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,030$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…9c79backed Over | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed Over | 42c | 249.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Over | 10c | 213.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 203.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 168.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Under | 58c | 128.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…73ecbacked Under | 58c | 121$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 39c | 112.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 56c | 74.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…7f42backed Under | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 42c | 64.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Over | 43c | 64.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 39c | 63.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Over | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 63c | 40.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 40c | 33.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Over | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 41c | 31.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…e2fdbacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Under | 61c | 28.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Under | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Heat won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Heat vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.