NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc12c961d4d54b0014f3537818fa52a19b30a511d4b85b31484e5e94a6ed621a

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Celtics, Heat
Resolved: Feb 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,292
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,292 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics	44c	5,817$2,556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,555.67	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Heat	56c	4,811$2,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,116.94	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics	41c	4,498$1,855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,854.98	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics	41c	4,493$1,821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,821.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Heat	60c	3,341$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,340.63	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Celtics	7c	2,880$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.26	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb42…48ccbacked Heat	58c	1,727$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$726.85	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat	54c	1,631$881 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750.48	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Celtics	43c	1,222$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.48	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Heat	56c	999.52$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.09	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics	44c	808$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.67	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Heat	56c	765.82$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.82	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Celtics	22c	741.57$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.28	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Celtics	22c	715.01$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.25	184	38.6%71 W · 113 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat	68c	659.92$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.13	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3397…f5abbacked Heat	57c	500$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Celtics	13c	490$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.1	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Heat	58c	487.93$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.93	476	51.7%246 W · 230 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics	44c	486.11$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.98	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Celtics	44c	454.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Celtics	45c	399.99$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a61…7017backed Heat	72c	386.16$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.73	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat	58c	344.83$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.83	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics	42c	305.41$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.16	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Celtics	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics	45c	266.66$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Heat	55c	250$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.5	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Heat	80c	244$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.99	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6746…70e1backed Celtics	44c	204.48$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.97	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-5.2wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Celtics	17c	187$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.79	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Heat	57c	177.19$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.19	83	57.8%48 W · 35 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Heat	58c	172.59$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.59	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Heat	59c	168.12$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.12	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked Celtics	44c	167.2$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.57	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3502…7057backed Heat	57c	159.22$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.22	182	56.6%103 W · 79 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Celtics	11c	140.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Celtics	43c	139.76$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.1	587	40%235 W · 352 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Celtics	44c	129.55$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.53	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Celtics	48c	125.68$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.81	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Heat	58c	113.59$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.59	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Heat	54c	111.11$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.11	364	53%193 W · 171 L	-17.0wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Celtics	45c	104.23$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	213	52.1%111 W · 102 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Heat	54c	101.85$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.85	160	30.6%49 W · 111 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Celtics	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	151	56.3%85 W · 66 L	+8.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca4…2a96backed Heat	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	308	36%111 W · 197 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Celtics	36c	97.42$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	506	51.2%259 W · 247 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Celtics	44c	92.75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.81	219	37%81 W · 138 L	-15.9wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Heat	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	257	52.5%135 W · 122 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Celtics	46c	79.76$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.95	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Celtics	28c	75$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.75	655	42.9%281 W · 374 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat	73c	70.76$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.01	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Heat	58c	70$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa885…84debacked Celtics	47c	63.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	88	56.8%50 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Heat	57c	61.43$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.41	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Celtics	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed Celtics	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	149	47%70 W · 79 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Celtics	18c	56.44$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	470	45.1%212 W · 258 L	-10.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Celtics	43c	55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbc…b637backed Celtics	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	173	31.8%55 W · 118 L	-16.5wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Heat	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d90…cf08backed Heat	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	199	40.7%81 W · 118 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Celtics	39c	43.91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Celtics	28c	39.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Heat	58c	37.36$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.79	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Celtics	43c	37.02$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Heat	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cea…a062backed Heat	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Celtics	42c	35.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.81	183	39.3%72 W · 111 L	-13.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2dd…59bbbacked Celtics	47c	32.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-20%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Celtics	44c	30.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Celtics	40c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked Heat	52c	28.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.81	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98b…d3bebacked Heat	55c	28.18$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.68	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Celtics	44c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed9…ed83backed Celtics	47c	26.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Celtics	43c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a12…a366backed Celtics	43c	23.49$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc9…185bbacked Heat	53c	22.58$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.58	292	47.9%140 W · 152 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Heat	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	372	53.5%199 W · 173 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.82	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Heat	79c	13.59$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.92	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Heat won
Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5No won
Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Heat vs. CelticsCeltics won
Heat vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineHeat won
Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 13.5No won
Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Heat won
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Heat won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event