TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under48c2,470$1,192 inWon+$1,277.992,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Over52c1,923$1,000 inLost-$1,00012051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under50c1,862$928 inWon+$934.284,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over51c1,120$571 inLost-$571.221247.2%100 W · 112 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c800$400 inLost-$40084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c484.99$240 inLost-$240.429,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over48c446.77$214 inLost-$214.452,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c431.68$215 inLost-$214.893,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Under48c385.13$185 inWon+$200.2738251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Under51c313.73$160 inWon+$153.7322953.7%123 W · 106 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24d…0af7backed Over53c293.64$156 inLost-$155.631442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c246.45$127 inLost-$127.263,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under52c230.76$120 inWon+$110.762,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under48c200$96 inWon+$10480737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under52c195$101 inWon+$93.678652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.311,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over15c189.77$28 inLost-$28.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948d…d6a8backed Over49c100$49 inLost-$492445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Over49c100$49 inLost-$4938845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Under51c98.04$50 inWon+$48.0411157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Over51c98.04$50 inLost-$501827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-33.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Over50c86.87$43 inLost-$43.4418339.3%72 W · 111 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under52c84.36$44 inWon+$40.493,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Over52c53$28 inLost-$27.5662744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Under76c46.11$35 inWon+$11.0755751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over24c46.11$11 inLost-$11.073,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3526…8b74backed Under49c42.99$21 inWon+$21.9314751.7%76 W · 71 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.2240344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over52c28.85$15 inLost-$1522655.3%125 W · 101 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over51c23.53$12 inLost-$1218150.3%91 W · 90 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Over48c21.9$11 inLost-$10.5113750.4%69 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4b…9f51backed Over51c20$10 inLost-$10.24050%20 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab4…50acbacked Over51c20$10 inLost-$10.28351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.