NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43823422f76871f87c9561bcedc42f18b8d1d66f15ee7c284a13a097f9bf8bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Celtics, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Heat | 49c | 6,500$3,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Celtics | 51c | 6,230$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177.33 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 48c | 3,563$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics | 52c | 3,422$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.57 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Heat | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Celtics | 51c | 1,900$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Heat | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.83 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Heat | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.81 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Celtics | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 48c | 996.43$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Heat | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Celtics | 51c | 799.99$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Celtics | 52c | 782$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.64 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Celtics | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 59c | 480$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…697abacked Celtics | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 206 | 50%103 W · 103 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 52c | 399.67$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics | 51c | 366.59$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Celtics | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Celtics | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Celtics | 30c | 234.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 53c | 226.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Heat | 49c | 206.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Celtics | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Celtics | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Celtics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…8354backed Celtics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Celtics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Heat | 48c | 188.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…0a32backed Celtics | 52c | 188.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Heat | 52c | 151$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Celtics | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…d4a4backed Celtics | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed Celtics | 54c | 133.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…ad2fbacked Celtics | 53c | 132.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Celtics | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Celtics | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Heat | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Heat | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Celtics | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Celtics | 49c | 99.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Heat | 71c | 98.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Celtics | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Celtics | 53c | 80.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Heat | 76c | 78.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat | 75c | 69.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Heat | 59c | 58.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…0e69backed Celtics | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4720…007bbacked Heat | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Heat | 45c | 53.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…c5dbbacked Celtics | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Celtics | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Celtics | 52c | 39.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Celtics | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Celtics | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9c…6b57backed Celtics | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Celtics | 51c | 33.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Celtics | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…75acbacked Celtics | 52c | 28.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Celtics | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Celtics | 52c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…0c83backed Celtics | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 193 | 46.1%89 W · 104 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…0df2backed Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…78d9backed Heat | 68c | 18.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Heat won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Heat vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Heat vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Payton Pritchard: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.