Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19e44f62c75a3d9fb5ab22f4425dbd3a5a05337320fcd8b1c54bcc9c68f41f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 391.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.42 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 321.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 68c | 299.94$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 266.27$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 228.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 68c | 209.03$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 69c | 209$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 182.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 58c | 165.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 161.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 43c | 150.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 133.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 129.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 120.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 116$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 97.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 52c | 94.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 93.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 90.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 31c | 84.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 18c | 84.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 82.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 82.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 70.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed Yes | 67c | 66.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 66.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 61.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 55c | 46.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 45.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 24c | 45.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 44.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 42.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 44c | 40.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 38.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 38.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 46c | 36.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 74c | 35.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 49c | 32.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 31.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 30.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 53c | 28.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 26.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 53c | 21.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 19.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 72c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.