Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a5cf277c1ca9b97925613707e14a96306de97f9dcf6d49b3bbf336a16f4efd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 48c | 3,029$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.82 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 454.04$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 401.85$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 44c | 397.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 80c | 387.74$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 325.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 321$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 43c | 294.73$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 210.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 197$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 188.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 182.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 171.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 50c | 168.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 75c | 163$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 78c | 153$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 150.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 56c | 127.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 62c | 126.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 74c | 114.41$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…518cbacked No | 61c | 109.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 53c | 94.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 40c | 93.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 42c | 89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 84.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked Yes | 52c | 83.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23a…4a36backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 47c | 81.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 61c | 75.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 38c | 71.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 55c | 67.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 42c | 54.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 62c | 54.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 38c | 53.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked Yes | 61c | 50.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 49.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed Yes | 71c | 48.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…4f8abacked Yes | 45c | 45.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef2…ab0cbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 58c | 35.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 32c | 33.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 52c | 31.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 50c | 31.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 29.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf63d…c601backed No | 49c | 25.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…8234backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 60c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 54c | 22.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 59c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74d4…8fcdbacked Yes | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 64c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.