Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a05145604797f69472790ae78b54be85ab0d6aa313412756f116d43a672c6fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 35c | 1,514$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.27 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 1,059$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.52 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 488$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 348.46$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 66c | 347.01$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 294.73$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 289.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 244$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…4325backed Yes | 45c | 221.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 189.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 39c | 168.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 168$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 164.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 124.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 119.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 118.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 113.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 25c | 107.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 37c | 105.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…59c8backed Yes | 37c | 103.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 79c | 96.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 95.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 42c | 94.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 27c | 87.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 83.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 80.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 59c | 80.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 47c | 70.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 65c | 70.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 55c | 64.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 20c | 63.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 59c | 59.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 37c | 59.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 43c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked No | 73c | 40.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 64c | 36.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 35.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 34.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 47c | 34.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 28.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 49c | 27.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 47c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 75c | 26.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…1cb0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 78c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 26?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 26?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.