NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a68fc2cf36edea5e39b27fb47d1a9f692ee2783ace7aa34fc82bb925234cff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 57c | 30,000$17,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,899.93 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 43c | 14,178$6,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,096.61 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 5,528$2,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.87 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 19c | 3,963$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,216.86 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 43c | 2,270$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 63c | 1,865$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.21 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 44c | 1,304$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.9 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Over | 45c | 955$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.75 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff58…42c2backed Under | 56c | 930.36$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 901.5$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.65 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…4a34backed Under | 1c | 844.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +1,156.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under | 57c | 806.13$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 2c | 737.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.18 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Over | 24c | 700$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 15c | 666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 653.33$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.85 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 627.91$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 43c | 575$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.25 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 43c | 540$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 44c | 498.3$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…85cebacked Under | 57c | 454.63$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…0c80backed Under | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 56c | 424$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 43c | 361.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.44 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 45c | 340.23$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…70cebacked Under | 56c | 297.87$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 43c | 240$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 43c | 228.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Under | 5c | 203.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 57c | 200.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 71c | 175$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 32c | 122.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 45c | 122$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 118.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Over | 45c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 43c | 112.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Over | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 107.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Over | 44c | 104$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 29c | 91.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 36c | 80.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Over | 43c | 74.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 44c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Over | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…ecfbbacked Under | 56c | 56.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked Under | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 24c | 51.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 50.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Under | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568c…d2a9backed Over | 41c | 32.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 44c | 30.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Under | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 28.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Under | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Under | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 26.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 58c | 25.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389c…0865backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…4e3ebacked Under | 56c | 17.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. KrakenKraken won
- Capitals vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.