NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35ab9d3908504f5c900f3975312f8bc884316ed548265ac4607dae04ec603a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Capitals, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Capitals | 34c | 6,518$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.91 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Kraken | 66c | 4,324$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.11 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Kraken | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.1 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals | 33c | 649.98$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Kraken | 65c | 571.33$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Capitals | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Kraken | 70c | 452$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…dff4backed Kraken | 66c | 437.65$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…5266backed Capitals | 34c | 437.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Kraken | 67c | 358.21$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Capitals | 28c | 345.02$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Kraken | 67c | 269.12$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kraken | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Capitals | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Kraken | 67c | 155$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Capitals | 30c | 138$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Capitals | 33c | 121$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Capitals | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Kraken | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Kraken | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Kraken | 66c | 89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Capitals | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Capitals | 33c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Capitals | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Capitals | 33c | 81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Kraken | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Capitals | 33c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Capitals | 33c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Capitals | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kraken | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Capitals | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Capitals | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Capitals | 35c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kraken | 65c | 62.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203d…e00fbacked Capitals | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Capitals | 33c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Kraken | 66c | 50.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Capitals | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kraken | 66c | 48.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Capitals | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Kraken | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kraken | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kraken | 65c | 42.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Capitals | 35c | 42.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Kraken | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 799 | 56.1%448 W · 351 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Kraken | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Capitals | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Kraken | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Kraken | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Kraken | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Kraken | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Kraken | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Kraken | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Kraken | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Kraken | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Kraken | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Kraken | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Kraken | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Kraken | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Kraken | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Kraken | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Kraken | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Kraken | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Kraken | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Kraken | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Kraken | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Kraken | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Kraken | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Kraken | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Kraken | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Kraken | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Kraken | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Kraken | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Kraken | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Kraken | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Kraken | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Kraken | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Kraken | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. KrakenKraken won
- Capitals vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.