TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,906

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8d36…68fdbacked Over47c17,066$8,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,02125751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Under53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.991,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under53c9,091$4,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,256.4731153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Over47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1c…fc18backed Under46c658.63$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.569965.7%65 W · 34 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Over47c400$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.4810937.6%41 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Over42c309.97$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3853955.1%297 W · 242 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Over37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11132752.9%173 W · 154 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Under63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1112,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8b…87acbacked Over46c249.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11518747.1%88 W · 99 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Over46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9248448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Over46c196.64$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.451,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x231c…47debacked Under53c189.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Under53c187.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.129335.2%103 W · 190 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882f…50b8backed Under54c184.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8352646.2%243 W · 283 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…2a1fbacked Over66c180$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5122646.5%105 W · 121 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Under47c163.51$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.662552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed Over39c149$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1114852%77 W · 71 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae72…f49dbacked Under54c146$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1638335%134 W · 249 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked Under80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2025764.2%165 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…b133backed Over60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609549.5%47 W · 48 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Over35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517345.7%79 W · 94 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under54c96.74$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.513940.3%56 W · 83 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ef…abd4backed Over37c95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a93…36babacked Over56c90.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.268256.1%46 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e23…761dbacked Under21c89.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7620537.6%77 W · 128 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Under53c72.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0225547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over70c66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.161,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe86a…e272backed Over37c63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5224649.2%121 W · 125 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Over39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012437.9%47 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.553954.7%295 W · 244 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50f6…b8c6backed Under54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.36051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Under53c37.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8722858.3%133 W · 95 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefd…afbcbacked Over46c33.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.479538.9%37 W · 58 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.454054.3%293 W · 247 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x785d…c75dbacked Under59c25.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d46…1a6bbacked Under53c24.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.531040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under54c23.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9730247%142 W · 160 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c0…af29backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021819.3%42 W · 176 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102147.6%10 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+51.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Under65c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.12,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed Under62c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.621937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Under61c19.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.791,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eee…74e0backed Under57c18.07$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.771947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over69c15.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.