TailMyPicks
Market

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Brighton & Hove Albion FCof Aston Villa FC, Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,324
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,324 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa800…bd7abacked Aston Villa FC27c7,407$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003735.1%13 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC74c6,717$4,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.296,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC74c3,876$2,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.822,55847.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC73c2,493$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.22,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Aston Villa FC26c2,161$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.221,21241.7%505 W · 707 L-1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Aston Villa FC25c1,249$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7510234.3%35 W · 67 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c1,082$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.964,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197b…818ebacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC74c999.99$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2604854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Aston Villa FC25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007131%22 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Aston Villa FC27c742.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4114138.3%54 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7839…54cbbacked Aston Villa FC25c400.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b7…b46fbacked Aston Villa FC27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…c795backed Aston Villa FC26c354.54$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.185228.8%15 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b4f…0019backed Aston Villa FC21c338.39$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8152454.2%284 W · 240 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Aston Villa FC28c270.07$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7524630.5%75 W · 171 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Aston Villa FC27c177.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486627.3%18 W · 48 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Aston Villa FC26c153$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7854128.3%153 W · 388 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…e601backed Aston Villa FC27c148.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Aston Villa FC26c134.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536036.1%130 W · 230 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC73c110$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Aston Villa FC25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519128.8%55 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb226…e227backed Aston Villa FC15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed Aston Villa FC26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511736.8%43 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Aston Villa FC18c89.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.099137.4%34 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Aston Villa FC28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511839%46 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Aston Villa FC21c84.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5651516.1%83 W · 432 L-49.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-38.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Aston Villa FC27c81.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216233.3%54 W · 108 L-14.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC78c69.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.571,93842.5%823 W · 1,115 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce2…40bcbacked Aston Villa FC25c61.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0418…d347backed Aston Villa FC26c60.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Aston Villa FC24c52.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5510124.8%25 W · 76 L-12.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Aston Villa FC25c49.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2840953.3%218 W · 191 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c45.71$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3316357.1%93 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00cf…62b3backed Aston Villa FC26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…9c0ebacked Aston Villa FC25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.57045.7%32 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC73c27.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.451,63652.9%866 W · 770 L+32.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x630f…15aebacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c23.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9180…5af8backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC76c22.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC74c21.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.471947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3290…7043backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC76c20.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8c…a80dbacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c19.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1eb…4272backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC76c18.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88da…3eabbacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC76c18.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…f291backed Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c17.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+96%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed6a…841ebacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c16.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.182857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec5…58eabacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC75c15.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.931650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Brighton & Hove Albion FC77c14.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4142658%247 W · 179 L+24.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.