Tennis · resolved market
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c46914a1ec09ac3ee8c35e39d27e405d87b07abd99de5ed0d1b81e27376bf44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cezar Cretuof Cezar Cretu, Niels McDonald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cezar Cretu | 63c | 3,748$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.06 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Niels McDonald | 38c | 2,185$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.51 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Niels McDonald | 38c | 1,770$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.82 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…b30fbacked Niels McDonald | 38c | 1,579$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 720 | 40.8%294 W · 426 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Cezar Cretu | 62c | 1,521$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.77 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Niels McDonald | 49c | 1,253$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.24 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Niels McDonald | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…7f11backed Cezar Cretu | 52c | 949.67$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Niels McDonald | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…93c5backed Cezar Cretu | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Cezar Cretu | 65c | 772.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.14 | 625 | 57.6%360 W · 265 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Niels McDonald | 29c | 754.47$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Niels McDonald | 45c | 664.97$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.26 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Niels McDonald | 24c | 595.57$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Niels McDonald | 37c | 397.11$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17d…2134backed Cezar Cretu | 63c | 353.25$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…72f0backed Cezar Cretu | 76c | 334.95$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Niels McDonald | 39c | 306$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 301 | 32.9%99 W · 202 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cezar Cretu | 52c | 304.24$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.02 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Cezar Cretu | 69c | 287.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Niels McDonald | 39c | 270$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 363 | 48.2%175 W · 188 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Niels McDonald | 37c | 249.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Niels McDonald | 37c | 237.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Niels McDonald | 38c | 231.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Niels McDonald | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 1,131 | 45.4%514 W · 617 L | -34.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Cezar Cretu | 63c | 205.1$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Niels McDonald | 22c | 192.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cezar Cretu | 72c | 187.65$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Niels McDonald | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Cezar Cretu | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 581 | 45.8%266 W · 315 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…6118backed Cezar Cretu | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 240 | 65%156 W · 84 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Niels McDonald | 43c | 142.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Cezar Cretu | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Cezar Cretu | 77c | 130.39$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 532 | 55.5%295 W · 237 L | +24.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Niels McDonald | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cezar Cretu | 62c | 128.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…0b12backed Niels McDonald | 17c | 128.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Niels McDonald | 12c | 127.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…9c72backed Cezar Cretu | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 444 | 55.2%245 W · 199 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Niels McDonald | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed Niels McDonald | 10c | 112.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Cezar Cretu | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 290 | 48.3%140 W · 150 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Niels McDonald | 23c | 108.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Niels McDonald | 32c | 107.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Niels McDonald | 38c | 104.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Niels McDonald | 38c | 102.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…af9fbacked Niels McDonald | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Niels McDonald | 28c | 91.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 2,099 | 44.5%935 W · 1,164 L | -51.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Niels McDonald | 33c | 89.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 441 | 44.7%197 W · 244 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Niels McDonald | 34c | 86.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Cezar Cretu | 70c | 84.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 524 | 57.3%300 W · 224 L | +29.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Cezar Cretu | 59c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cezar Cretu | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Niels McDonald | 31c | 72.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Cezar Cretu | 63c | 71.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Niels McDonald | 32c | 71.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 312 | 20.5%64 W · 248 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Cezar Cretu | 69c | 69.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 492 | 51.6%254 W · 238 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cezar Cretu | 75c | 62.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Cezar Cretu | 69c | 62.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 2,326 | 52.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L | +85.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cezar Cretu | 53c | 55.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Niels McDonald | 43c | 53.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,882 | 57.4%1,081 W · 801 L | +104.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…b4f2backed Niels McDonald | 38c | 50.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 457 | 44.2%202 W · 255 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Niels McDonald | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Niels McDonald | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…d620backed Cezar Cretu | 73c | 40.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Niels McDonald | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 222 | 30.6%68 W · 154 L | -25.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Niels McDonald | 32c | 38.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Niels McDonald | 37c | 33.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Cezar Cretu | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Cezar Cretu | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -40.4wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cezar Cretu | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 837 | 47.6%398 W · 439 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…f5b0backed Cezar Cretu | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 476 | 57.4%273 W · 203 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Niels McDonald | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 292 | 37.3%109 W · 183 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…bf1bbacked Cezar Cretu | 62c | 28.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Cezar Cretu | 58c | 27.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 472 | 51.3%242 W · 230 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cezar Cretu | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Cezar Cretu | 55c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 93 | 64.5%60 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Cezar Cretu | 67c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonaldthis page
- Set Handicap: McDonald (-1.5) vs Cretu (+1.5)Cretu won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.