TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Cardinals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nationalsof Nationals, Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4dae…f8b2backed Nationals47c8,720$4,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,631.213352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals53c7,634$4,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,043.631,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Cardinals35c6,256$2,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,177.826847.4%127 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Nationals45c6,053$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.4938249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45db…51c6backed Cardinals7c4,879$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.834748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+57.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals65c3,938$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.179,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Cardinals55c3,819$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.7298149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Cardinals57c3,070$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Cardinals53c2,526$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.781,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Cardinals56c2,304$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.4838047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Cardinals1c2,238$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.394754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals43c2,231$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.632,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nationals47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals41c1,822$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.71,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Cardinals22c1,818$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Cardinals31c1,717$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.334332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Nationals43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57021941.1%90 W · 129 L-19.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Cardinals54c976$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.041,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5681…cac8backed Cardinals4c839.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.395042%21 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals14c825.08$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.172,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nationals46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4321,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Nationals46c799.99$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43624248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals50c772.84$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.561,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…fde7backed Cardinals54c748.98$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.986450%32 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbccd…6aeebacked Cardinals57c701.75$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004045%18 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Cardinals2c673.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Nationals60c580$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.796,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Cardinals57c570$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.943654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeec7…08c6backed Cardinals59c509.08$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d8…5744backed Cardinals57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2852330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Cardinals14c449.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…3601backed Cardinals56c446$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7610550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Cardinals56c391$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9660249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Nationals45c382.13$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.1743247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals46c381.02$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.241,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Cardinals54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nationals47c363.78$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.85,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Nationals67c299.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9913359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Nationals63c287.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.466645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Cardinals56c279$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.249245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Nationals44c279$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.245352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Cardinals28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7026650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc839…2930backed Cardinals13c245.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.873729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cardinals54c228.72$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.511,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a0…2569backed Nationals45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.224450%22 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Nationals45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nationals72c202.05$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0934164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Cardinals53c201.91$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10799951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Cardinals53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10620450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Cardinals51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Cardinals53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Nationals45c182$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.123545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe69b…6afdbacked Cardinals37c179.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.264250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Nationals72c177.77$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1632754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Cardinals53c171.72$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0119742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x198b…9973backed Cardinals52c169.43$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.112045.8%55 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nationals78c160$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.581,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Cardinals26c156.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2817927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Nationals48c152.88$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.58156.8%46 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59ee…7ad7backed Cardinals7c142.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.124610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9839…040ebacked Nationals45c134$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.714146.8%66 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a85…2033backed Cardinals56c121.63$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x406f…01b1backed Nationals45c114.09$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.751060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Nationals44c114$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3385047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Cardinals57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…fbe9backed Cardinals52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc615…9f26backed Cardinals38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387025.7%18 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6187…1746backed Nationals48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Cardinals57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Cardinals31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3150447.2%238 W · 266 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Cardinals53c96.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0857545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Cardinals37c95.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517930.2%54 W · 125 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2127…0cb6backed Nationals45c83.8$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.093063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Nationals69c78.26$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2668656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf36…b143backed Cardinals56c77.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.24771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc948…2224backed Cardinals58c73.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.471050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals44c69.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nationals46c68.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9297950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13af…d1cabacked Cardinals38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511145%50 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals73c64.79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.574,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Cardinals35c63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1633137.5%124 W · 207 L-17.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50bb…c876backed Cardinals52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305642.9%24 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Cardinals57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3054455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Cardinals57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.59246.7%43 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7c…920ebacked Cardinals52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519053.2%101 W · 89 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9961…8652backed Nationals72c47.22$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.225172.5%37 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cardinals58c46.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.091,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb58…0e11backed Nationals71c46.63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3142955%236 W · 193 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Nationals49c42.65$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7550852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ed82backed Nationals43c40.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2225952.5%136 W · 123 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Nationals48c38.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.114050.7%71 W · 69 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d6…1733backed Cardinals40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512940.3%52 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03a5…75acbacked Nationals48c33.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Nationals45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3312451.6%64 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Nationals49c32.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.365940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nationals43c32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.241,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.