Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d0139e63ff58fa1e1673843e765d6987b5746f755fd98ee9765f8f97f817202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 912.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 619.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 455.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 12c | 448.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 17c | 411.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 11c | 395.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 7c | 310.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 285.74$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 8c | 262.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 246.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 240.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 27c | 199.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…00f1backed Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 73c | 150.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 144.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 26c | 135.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 33c | 120.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 15c | 109.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 95.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 18c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 35c | 85.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 76c | 85.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 68.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 68.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 68.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 61.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 28c | 57.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked Yes | 33c | 52.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 29c | 52.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 30c | 48.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 44.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 30c | 43.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 33c | 41.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 41.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 40.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…118dbacked No | 66c | 38.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…76fabacked Yes | 34c | 33.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 31.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 28.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 20.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…7466backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 61c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…81dcbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.