Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1b7edba5be979eb1ee2bae07ec05b6d6bcc94f35447617ded7b24ea5c489d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 4c | 1,737$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 1c | 1,540$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 1,536$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 1,535$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,387$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.51 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 44c | 1,198$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.33 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 21c | 965.92$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 74c | 585.45$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 523.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 26c | 523.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24d…947abacked No | 79c | 522.58$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 472.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 55c | 422.05$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 26c | 346.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.19 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed No | 6c | 331.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 23c | 308.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.05 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 41c | 261.92$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.94 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 7c | 260.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 250.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.13 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 22c | 235.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.71 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 61c | 212.27$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 64c | 197.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 60c | 190.32$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 62c | 184.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 6c | 184.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 23c | 176.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 7c | 172.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.82 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…8d48backed Yes | 8c | 147.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 25c | 146$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 26c | 143.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 48c | 128.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 60c | 125.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 120.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 32c | 119.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed Yes | 43c | 117.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 11c | 116.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 106$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 105.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 99.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 75c | 94.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…35abbacked Yes | 62c | 79.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 20c | 76.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 25c | 75.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 75.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 71.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 21c | 68.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 68.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 64.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…0e97backed No | 41c | 62.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked No | 77c | 60.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 56.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 67c | 56.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 54.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 49.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d3…a8f7backed Yes | 32c | 48.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 42.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 40.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 46c | 39.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 32c | 38.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 60c | 38.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked No | 55c | 36.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 32.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 36c | 30.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 54c | 30.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 27.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 49c | 27.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…5c89backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 23.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…f7f3backed Yes | 78c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 59c | 20.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 54c | 19.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 18.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.