Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5443af959da655a763e1785a4271e68c619eacb4c4c61592795ffd301eba183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 4c | 1,812$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 14c | 1,202$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,080$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,077$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 6c | 1,073$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 511.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 508$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 28c | 493$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…8ab9backed Yes | 4c | 474.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 5c | 453.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 390.55$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 40c | 326.31$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 288.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 285.96$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 60c | 282.43$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.81 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 270$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 11c | 253.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 54c | 236.24$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 44c | 227.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 5c | 219.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 203$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…9021backed Yes | 7c | 193.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 42c | 192.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 14c | 159.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 11c | 144.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 26c | 142.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 137.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 113.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 36c | 98.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 96.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 38c | 96.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…8176backed Yes | 51c | 93.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 93.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 55c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 59c | 86.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 56c | 81.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 74.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 73.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 40c | 72.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd20a…688dbacked Yes | 44c | 67.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 65.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 40c | 61.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 60.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 64c | 59.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 54.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 49.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…76fabacked Yes | 41c | 44.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 41c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 61c | 40.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 40c | 36.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 53c | 36.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 33.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 60c | 31.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 40c | 29.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 25.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 75c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.