Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d34610c18e0ff5885a2520fef87427f69e1508db45f24386ac50460f219b1c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 1c | 2,311$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 66c | 1,257$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.05 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 10c | 904.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 70c | 586.32$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 34c | 545.19$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 32c | 484.92$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.46 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 483.16$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 45c | 464.22$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.71 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 13c | 441.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 422.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 345.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 310$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 50c | 278.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 44c | 258.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 44c | 256.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 35c | 255.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 207.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 181.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 59c | 174.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 50c | 172.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 60c | 165.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 17c | 160.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 159.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 63c | 158.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 42c | 151.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked No | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 147$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 39c | 141.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 78c | 141.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 52c | 136.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 62c | 135.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 134.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 16c | 128.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 18c | 128.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 59c | 121$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af4…0ae5backed No | 41c | 118.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 57c | 114.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed No | 48c | 110.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 109.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 108.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 60c | 108$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 48c | 105.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 67c | 104.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 44c | 103.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 44c | 91.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 56c | 91.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 57c | 88.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 88.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 74c | 87.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 87.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 27c | 87.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked Yes | 71c | 86.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 85.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 14c | 83.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 60c | 80.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 30c | 79.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 59c | 75.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 74.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed Yes | 54c | 74.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 46c | 74.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 73.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 49c | 73.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 48c | 72.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 30c | 71.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 56c | 70.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 70.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 59c | 69.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 70c | 66.62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 55c | 65.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 55c | 65.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 43c | 65.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed Yes | 66c | 65.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 60c | 57.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 43c | 56.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 56c | 56.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed No | 21c | 55.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 54.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 39c | 50.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 34c | 49.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 58c | 49.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 48.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 58c | 48.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked No | 29c | 45.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…baadbacked No | 37c | 45.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.