Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. West Ham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d95c9011918b51423c17ab060f510f8db9e4e0501f4f7c658f6307c1b8fab6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Yes | 28c | 35,782$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 72c | 26,642$19,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,459.88 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6693…e638backed No | 73c | 9,998$7,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9b10backed Yes | 27c | 9,998$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 5,100$3,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 13c | 4,466$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 26c | 2,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,050$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.3 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 73c | 1,009$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 71c | 809.86$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.28 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…c7cfbacked No | 73c | 776$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…3be3backed Yes | 27c | 776$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes | 27c | 723$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.21 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Yes | 28c | 268.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…76c7backed Yes | 9c | 229.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 73c | 215.57$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 74c | 199.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 27c | 187.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…2c5fbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…3d88backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 74c | 166.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 74c | 132.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 123.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 72c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 72c | 103.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 420 | 48.6%204 W · 216 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 28c | 41.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…5329backed No | 74c | 28.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d42…787fbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. West Ham end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-11?No won
- Will West Ham win on 2025-05-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.