AI · resolved market
Claude 4 released in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1de89e378253737d1f9a08b9cbd2037d739c30bd8697115ace5084335a71249b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 78c | 5,819$4,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 80c | 3,263$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.2 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaa…4123backed No | 4c | 2,957$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 7c | 2,939$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.48 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 25c | 2,701$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 24c | 2,693$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.86 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 75c | 2,107$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.92 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…74b3backed No | 21c | 1,936$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 1,496$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed No | 26c | 1,346$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,291$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81bd…36abbacked Yes | 59c | 1,014$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 3c | 867.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 67c | 616.65$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked No | 11c | 604.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…ac37backed No | 17c | 601.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 64c | 449$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 65c | 424.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…2992backed No | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab13…f605backed No | 9c | 345.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 11c | 309.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed No | 40c | 279.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 41c | 253.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 223.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…bf9dbacked No | 12c | 198.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275f…740abacked No | 31c | 193.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 45c | 167.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee56…bba5backed Yes | 35c | 152$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Yes | 74c | 142$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked Yes | 69c | 140.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 65c | 130$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 65c | 117.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 61c | 102$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 30c | 101.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 32c | 94.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked Yes | 30c | 93.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…5ecabacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…cb8cbacked No | 37c | 62.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x817d…93e9backed No | 39c | 55.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…75e3backed No | 38c | 52.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe779…f0ecbacked No | 32c | 50.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…450bbacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 65c | 42.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316a…405abacked No | 38c | 36.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 71c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 66c | 34.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…fb2abacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.