Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Rune vs. Bautista Agut
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e16aeb268837f7119629f79dda4c7c2f744cbe619a9738f2d1139311ddb7972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bautista Agutof Rune, Bautista Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Bautista Agut | 55c | 7,286$4,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.55 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Rune | 21c | 5,830$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Bautista Agut | 28c | 5,717$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,127.01 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Bautista Agut | 59c | 4,446$2,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.38 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Rune | 73c | 3,990$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.46 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bautista Agut | 25c | 3,281$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.19 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rune | 73c | 3,233$2,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.1 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rune | 33c | 2,826$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.37 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Rune | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Bautista Agut | 42c | 2,365$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.23 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Bautista Agut | 30c | 2,027$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.33 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Rune | 63c | 1,800$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rune | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Bautista Agut | 27c | 999.98$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Bautista Agut | 36c | 974.32$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.08 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rune | 71c | 935.91$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.49 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…1e43backed Bautista Agut | 29c | 807.59$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.74 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Bautista Agut | 38c | 744$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.72 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Rune | 38c | 718.2$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Rune | 74c | 700.64$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.74 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Rune | 43c | 700$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Rune | 40c | 670.08$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.03 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Bautista Agut | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Rune | 50c | 569.23$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +317.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…1f02backed Bautista Agut | 30c | 568.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bautista Agut | 25c | 537.3$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.98 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Bautista Agut | 75c | 444.66$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Bautista Agut | 31c | 413.46$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.34 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Rune | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bautista Agut | 58c | 371$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.63 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Rune | 73c | 362.84$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.46 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Bautista Agut | 28c | 356.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.41 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Bautista Agut | 46c | 329.2$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Rune | 37c | 310$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Rune | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rune | 74c | 270.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…6b46backed Rune | 56c | 260$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Bautista Agut | 42c | 235.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Rune | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Rune | 52c | 202.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Bautista Agut | 26c | 190$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Rune | 45c | 163.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Rune | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Bautista Agut | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Rune | 75c | 115.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Bautista Agut | 30c | 115.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Rune | 61c | 106.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rune | 63c | 94.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Bautista Agut | 55c | 84.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rune | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Bautista Agut | 33c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bautista Agut | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rune | 71c | 72.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Bautista Agut | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Rune | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…61b0backed Rune | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed Rune | 72c | 45.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Rune | 73c | 40.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…4fa2backed Rune | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Rune | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…0868backed Rune | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Rune | 74c | 24.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Rune | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.