NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 245.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e565b92c4e1b01eb208feca9a45f30901e1254246a04ddf4bbdc746da757a6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,721 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 829.31$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 48c | 579.17$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.17 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 296.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Under | 54c | 204.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 50c | 106.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 106.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…5578backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 55c | 88.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…efa7backed Under | 55c | 79.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Under | 57c | 70.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 43c | 56.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 56c | 43.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 48c | 39.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 47c | 30.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 192 | 45.3%87 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 245.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pelicans (-10.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-9.5)Pelicans won
- Trae Young: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Tre Johnson: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Wizards vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 125.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 243.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5Over won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 21.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.