TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,131 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8753…85adbacked Over54c1,966$1,062 inWon+$904.3464651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under46c1,115$513 inLost-$513.0529352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over55c1,046$575 inWon+$471.2133146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over54c929.88$499 inWon+$430.7726638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under45c638$287 inLost-$287.16,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Under46c552.17$254 inLost-$2546946.4%32 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c479.67$228 inLost-$227.89,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over52c381$198 inWon+$182.881,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over52c244.36$127 inWon+$117.2984150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under46c220.54$101 inLost-$101.4535843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under39c211.3$83 inLost-$83.445452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under46c208.14$96 inLost-$95.743,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under46c198$90 inLost-$90.091,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under41c189.39$78 inLost-$78.23,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c187.54$91 inLost-$90.914,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over55c158$86 inWon+$71.6991148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under45c145.45$65 inLost-$65.453,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4694…b6b2backed Over55c145.45$80 inWon+$65.4510647.2%50 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Under51c98.04$50 inLost-$507247.2%34 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over77c97.4$75 inWon+$22.465872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under46c87.74$40 inLost-$40.361,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under46c79.49$37 inLost-$36.571,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over51c53.41$27 inWon+$26.222,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Under47c53$25 inLost-$24.9153839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under51c50.98$26 inLost-$261,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee3…bf37backed Over53c44.68$24 inWon+$217445.9%34 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c40$22 inWon+$18.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under46c33$15 inLost-$15.1846447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Under47c32$15 inLost-$15.0432747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under47c32$15 inLost-$15.0462049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Under47c32$15 inLost-$15.0427345.1%123 W · 150 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Under47c32$15 inLost-$15.0432947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under46c22.43$10 inLost-$10.314471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.