TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Pelicans: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Wizards, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,981 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe911…3d4ebacked Wizards44c1,128$494 inLost-$493.61,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans62c765.61$472 inWon+$293.515,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Pelicans56c265.87$149 inWon+$116.3926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Wizards28c221.43$62 inLost-$6226545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Wizards44c181.8$80 inLost-$79.9955751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Wizards17c140$24 inLost-$23.81,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6528…2dcebacked Pelicans78c126.58$99 inWon+$27.857766.2%51 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wizards22c126.58$28 inLost-$27.852,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Wizards26c112.88$29 inLost-$29.3533159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Pelicans79c96.2$76 inWon+$20.23250%16 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Wizards32c71$23 inLost-$22.7252230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Wizards28c50$14 inLost-$1428943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Pelicans56c50$28 inWon+$2222456.3%126 W · 98 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a8…dab3backed Wizards46c43.93$20 inLost-$20.211770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd4a…7ef5backed Pelicans38c39.47$15 inWon+$24.47450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc93b…9e73backed Wizards42c34.07$14 inLost-$14.176066.7%40 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ee…0d73backed Pelicans76c17.94$14 inWon+$4.27580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.