Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ec871ba5fb5eadc33995e78dc62e53c7dc8282497c91ba17710dc50e6665d67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 54c | 7,407$4,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.29 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 5,859$4,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.63 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 22c | 5,533$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.35 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 4,437$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.8 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes | 28c | 3,217$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 72c | 2,657$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.06 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 2,567$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.72 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 67c | 2,022$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.47 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 75c | 1,109$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.25 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573c…c365backed Yes | 43c | 881.91$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 28c | 793.62$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 35c | 711$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.68 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 70c | 709$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.78 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 70c | 603.86$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes | 43c | 559.72$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 28c | 519.13$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 489.88$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 450$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 35c | 417.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.29 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 17c | 410.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 47c | 385.39$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 363.45$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 79c | 315$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…0933backed Yes | 45c | 277.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 66c | 234$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 14c | 219.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 19c | 184.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 41c | 174$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 50c | 173$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 152.83$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 66c | 137.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 127$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 13c | 121$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 114.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 28c | 111.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 58c | 103.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 25c | 98.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 45c | 96.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 43c | 96.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 41c | 91.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Yes | 23c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 72c | 75.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Yes | 22c | 70.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 35c | 64.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 41c | 56.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Yes | 22c | 56.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 31c | 44.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 58c | 41.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked No | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…5be4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 72c | 18.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 73c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will San Diego FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?Yes won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.