NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8c1e42f839153cfe04558d1f8705b35ad9bc563614c9a3215fcda68aa7729f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 54c | 14,060$7,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,467.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs | 46c | 6,327$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs | 46c | 5,938$2,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.54 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 50c | 4,499$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.54 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Timberwolves | 54c | 3,817$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.94 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 45c | 1,394$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Spurs | 47c | 1,185$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.99 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Timberwolves | 64c | 1,177$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Spurs | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Timberwolves | 55c | 647.27$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.27 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 55c | 601.56$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spurs | 46c | 563.15$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Timberwolves | 50c | 440$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Timberwolves | 54c | 400$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Timberwolves | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Spurs | 11c | 279$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Timberwolves | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Spurs | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Spurs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Spurs | 47c | 142$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Spurs | 48c | 125.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Spurs | 47c | 116.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Timberwolves | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Timberwolves | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Timberwolves | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Timberwolves | 52c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Spurs | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Spurs | 47c | 57.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Timberwolves | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Timberwolves | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Spurs | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Spurs | 50c | 36.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 56c | 32.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…277ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Spurs | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.