NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceead30389ee38f62dada612ebfd53c7aa7f01e931051554f143a136bb6705c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 54c | 7,436$4,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,426.25 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 47c | 6,032$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.94 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce95…0aa0backed Over | 45c | 5,263$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…bec9backed Over | 45c | 5,201$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,860.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e7…0cd1backed Over | 45c | 4,258$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…279dbacked Over | 45c | 4,122$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…74a4backed Over | 45c | 4,029$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…6cfcbacked Under | 55c | 3,596$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…256ebacked Over | 45c | 3,419$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 3,091$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 56c | 2,998$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.14 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b0…7418backed Under | 55c | 2,752$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,683$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 44c | 2,300$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…317ebacked Under | 55c | 2,279$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ca…8dfdbacked Under | 55c | 1,924$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…164cbacked Under | 55c | 1,652$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 1,623$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.07 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…6a20backed Under | 55c | 1,622$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Under | 48c | 1,579$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…49f4backed Under | 55c | 1,538$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…fe00backed Under | 55c | 1,538$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3026…c38fbacked Under | 55c | 1,509$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aca…e8b7backed Under | 55c | 1,488$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f6…b3e5backed Under | 55c | 1,251$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…ab67backed Under | 55c | 1,211$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c2…0644backed Under | 55c | 1,070$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2724…66e1backed Under | 55c | 1,035$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 55c | 998.03$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.23 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…a2e9backed Under | 55c | 925$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 832.49$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.38 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 42c | 739$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 44c | 672$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ba…9fe7backed Under | 55c | 628$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 47c | 574.11$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.92 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Over | 55c | 517.71$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.97 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 111 | 37.8%42 W · 69 L | -14.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 333.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 53c | 333.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 298.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 47c | 295.1$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…fb2fbacked Under | 55c | 259$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 228.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 58c | 189.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…d081backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…2bb4backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 88.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…a3dbbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…b6c7backed Over | 47c | 52.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…cea7backed Under | 51c | 50.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 55c | 46.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Over | 53c | 37.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 47c | 31.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Over | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.