NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1745fa4ef866ceec40ef53e6269d2580ab1683732633ddce5c31d7c083cd8a2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Spurs | 5c | 2,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,967$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.7 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Spurs | 18c | 1,352$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Spurs | 54c | 1,306$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Spurs | 47c | 1,250$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.89 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 977.78$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.78 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Spurs | 2c | 890.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 871.93$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.53 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 54c | 819.05$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…85a2backed Spurs | 56c | 783.71$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.88 | 323 | 47.1%152 W · 171 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Spurs | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Spurs | 27c | 669.32$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.57 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 539.1$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Timberwolves | 43c | 510$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.4 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Spurs | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Spurs | 56c | 454.17$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.17 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Spurs | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…4078backed Spurs | 65c | 343.71$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spurs | 65c | 330.59$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.71 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Spurs | 57c | 280$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…9955backed Spurs | 10c | 242.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Spurs | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Spurs | 18c | 105.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Spurs | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Spurs | 75c | 42.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Spurs | 54c | 32.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…d337backed Spurs | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Timberwolves | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Timberwolves | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Spurs | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.