NBA · resolved market
NBA Summer League: Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbdbd0afa2e70c692064bdbcab7c6aec91184d03b79313c976feecbc336d52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orlando Magicof Orlando Magic, Miami Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Miami Heat | 28c | 3,065$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.2 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfa…9743backed Miami Heat | 16c | 2,767$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.68 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Miami Heat | 1c | 2,305$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 550 | 2.5%14 W · 536 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Orlando Magic | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Orlando Magic | 61c | 1,256$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.84 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Miami Heat | 39c | 1,256$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.84 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a6…cf4bbacked Miami Heat | 39c | 1,032$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Miami Heat | 53c | 1,015$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.67 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Orlando Magic | 61c | 924.15$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.92 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Orlando Magic | 54c | 811.54$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.67 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Orlando Magic | 61c | 779.93$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.17 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Orlando Magic | 62c | 707.25$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.63 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Miami Heat | 48c | 668.25$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.32 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Miami Heat | 4c | 603.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Orlando Magic | 79c | 498.54$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Miami Heat | 37c | 409.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.45 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…dcb1backed Orlando Magic | 63c | 311.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Heat | 38c | 294.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked Orlando Magic | 61c | 265.6$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Heat | 39c | 258.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Miami Heat | 54c | 252.3$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6db5…e279backed Miami Heat | 15c | 240.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Miami Heat | 9c | 229$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 111 | 60.4%67 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…ac8cbacked Miami Heat | 45c | 222.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Orlando Magic | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Orlando Magic | 45c | 160.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…553dbacked Miami Heat | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 271 | 45.4%123 W · 148 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Miami Heat | 41c | 120.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Heat | 41c | 108.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 202 | 37.1%75 W · 127 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Orlando Magic | 51c | 107$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Orlando Magic | 72c | 104.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Miami Heat | 29c | 101.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Orlando Magic | 50c | 100.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Orlando Magic | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed Orlando Magic | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Orlando Magic | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Miami Heat | 28c | 93.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa910…0777backed Orlando Magic | 46c | 90.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Heat | 39c | 88.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Miami Heat | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 8%10 W · 115 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…6ab5backed Orlando Magic | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Heat | 39c | 69.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Orlando Magic | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Orlando Magic | 62c | 65.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Miami Heat | 24c | 65.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ee…0439backed Miami Heat | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Orlando Magic | 62c | 52.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Orlando Magic | 58c | 49.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Miami Heat | 25c | 46.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Miami Heat | 37c | 44.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Miami Heat | 37c | 44.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Orlando Magic | 46c | 36.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Orlando Magic | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Miami Heat | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Miami Heat | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Orlando Magic | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Miami Heat | 40c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Orlando Magic | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked Orlando Magic | 63c | 20.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Heat | 51c | 19.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Miami Heat | 51c | 19.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 323 | 51.1%165 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.