Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fee996664074885e530c507d7ceb69a7a8186f87035163c22203e2b94a856cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 1,742$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 741.08$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 406.41$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 70c | 288.81$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 248$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 246.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 241.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 188.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 159.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 136.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 50c | 126.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 123.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 121.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 121$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 120.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 116.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 116.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 106.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 100.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 97.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 92.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 89.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 86.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 76.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 64.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 59.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 54.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 49.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 47.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce37…5bcdbacked Yes | 36c | 46.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 75c | 46.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 65c | 43.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 29.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 61c | 27.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 25.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 69c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90acbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…a18ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 64c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 16.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.