NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2040fb878768cb0023d72245fc8eadd80473f6f0ae421ca6601653d5619746ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 48c | 6,977$3,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,361.03 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 6,042$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,852.61 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 48c | 4,417$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.99 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 2,627$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.23 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 2,180$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.7 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under | 50c | 1,997$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 1,710$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 1,506$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,180$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.4 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 806.19$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.83 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 49c | 409.49$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.34 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 52c | 386$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 48c | 249.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Under | 48c | 246$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Over | 50c | 187$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 160.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…8b7fbacked Under | 54c | 112.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Over | 53c | 103.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a5…28ccbacked Under | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Under | 46c | 88.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 49c | 76.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 55c | 69.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Over | 60c | 66.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 64.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 50c | 61.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 49c | 61.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 59.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Over | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 36c | 41.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 32.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 55c | 31.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…3a66backed Over | 52c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 59c | 30.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2440…4f7ebacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 49c | 25.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 68c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…1b09backed Over | 51c | 19.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Over | 63c | 16.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.