NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1a523a6b01a858dab8125eb3c9985f68688704f0beb34c6bd71b3b745921d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Thunder, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $466,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $486,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 52c | 383,546$199,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199,444.03 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Grizzlies | 48c | 300,000$144,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156,000 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Grizzlies | 48c | 35,671$17,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,548.8 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 49c | 28,771$14,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,121.03 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Grizzlies | 50c | 23,500$11,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,685 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Grizzlies | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Grizzlies | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Grizzlies | 53c | 12,743$6,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,971.53 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Grizzlies | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 49c | 4,553$2,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 47c | 4,517$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…55b3backed Thunder | 51c | 2,534$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.33 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 48c | 2,490$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 48c | 2,485$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,286.4 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 51c | 2,093$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.73 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 65c | 1,990$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 52c | 1,718$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.36 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Thunder | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Grizzlies | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.43 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Grizzlies | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 748.03$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.53 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 624$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.48 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Grizzlies | 51c | 599.98$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.99 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 515$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Grizzlies | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Thunder | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…c344backed Thunder | 52c | 330.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Thunder | 50c | 310$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Thunder | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…2731backed Grizzlies | 53c | 215.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Thunder | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…c870backed Thunder | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Grizzlies | 47c | 201$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…175fbacked Thunder | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Thunder | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 50.9%116 W · 112 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Grizzlies | 50c | 148$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Thunder | 51c | 144$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 134.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 206 | 51%105 W · 101 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Thunder | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Grizzlies | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Thunder | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Thunder | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Grizzlies | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…fa69backed Thunder | 20c | 76.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Thunder | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Grizzlies | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…9e1cbacked Thunder | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Grizzlies | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Grizzlies | 49c | 36.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…b729backed Grizzlies | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Thunder | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…09dabacked Grizzlies | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Grizzlies | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 50c | 22.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed Grizzlies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…dedebacked Grizzlies | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.