NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x429597183c93b6e75b731d3644184b1d2e73d5b84e0ece42c1bd97cd6903721d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 39c | 4,042$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.64 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 6c | 2,105$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 63c | 1,403$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.03 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 1,370$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 4c | 1,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 1,183$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Over | 5c | 899.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Over | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 673.7$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 50c | 524.7$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 50c | 483.33$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.67 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 20c | 415.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 41c | 351.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 65c | 344.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 37c | 332.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 31c | 294.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Over | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 58c | 229.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 70c | 213.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 59c | 191.82$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 156$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…d2bbbacked Under | 69c | 116.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Under | 35c | 115.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…bb46backed Under | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 63c | 101.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Under | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 41c | 101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9ce0backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 37c | 91.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…0a7abacked Under | 63c | 79.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 183 | 54.1%99 W · 84 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 69.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…9a55backed Under | 57c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Under | 79c | 61.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 39c | 44.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 68c | 40.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 41c | 36.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…d882backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…ec72backed Under | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d86…112cbacked Under | 62c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…382bbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.