NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x199ad2e45596085b1be4da88b87d846f511799a36e396233a0e9993b815f96ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 49c | 12,487$6,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,353 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,294$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 53c | 2,836$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 1,841$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.55 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 55c | 1,032$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under | 55c | 906.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 47c | 845.81$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.6 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 52c | 550$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 468.66$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.33 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 444$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Under | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 53c | 390.57$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…3f90backed Under | 53c | 233.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 171.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 52c | 139$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 129$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 128.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d2…22fbbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 52c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 87.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Under | 52c | 77.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 46c | 70.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…18dfbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 44c | 56.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 51c | 51.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Over | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 49c | 30.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…91eebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf9…ca87backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Under | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.