NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb351b47032bff217666908fe1ce61717e53a9df9ebf3b750dc874705910c9270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Thunder, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Thunder | 55c | 9,540$5,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,230.08 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 5,480$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,947.07 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Thunder | 55c | 4,024$2,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,231.79 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 52c | 3,956$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.67 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder | 56c | 3,071$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.75 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Grizzlies | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 47c | 2,735$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies | 47c | 2,532$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.51 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Grizzlies | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 44c | 1,942$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Grizzlies | 49c | 1,561$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.55 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Thunder | 54c | 1,306$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 45c | 1,015$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 849.88$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Thunder | 55c | 584.71$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.59 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Grizzlies | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Grizzlies | 45c | 364$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Thunder | 45c | 343$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 66c | 237.18$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Grizzlies | 45c | 221.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Thunder | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed Grizzlies | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Grizzlies | 47c | 105.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Thunder | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…a291backed Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…c659backed Thunder | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Grizzlies | 46c | 98.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Thunder | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Thunder | 57c | 69.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Thunder | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 45c | 64.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies | 46c | 62.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Grizzlies | 45c | 60.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Grizzlies | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 55c | 50.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Grizzlies | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Grizzlies | 43c | 34.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…6e99backed Thunder | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Thunder | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Grizzlies | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Thunder | 59c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Thunder | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Grizzlies | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Grizzlies | 45c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…848fbacked Thunder | 59c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Thunder | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.