NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c9a7b8962ef5456c9079935c6518dbd04cf5168573d59f0909d294bccf9748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 5,466$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.04 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 4,722$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 4,221$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.76 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 3,444$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.26 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 45c | 1,850$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.5 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 45c | 1,606$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.66 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,422$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Over | 53c | 662.98$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.65 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 645.36$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 55c | 517.78$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 50c | 438$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 369.46$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.06 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 55c | 360$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 44c | 349.07$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.07 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 41c | 243.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.88 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 54c | 185.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 162.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 159.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 55c | 149.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 51c | 136$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 55c | 135$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 55c | 123.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 55c | 115.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 54c | 114$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 14c | 100.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 54c | 98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…0cc9backed Over | 52c | 94.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 47c | 84.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 54c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 66.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…d2bbbacked Under | 76c | 58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 52.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 50.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 43c | 46.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Under | 66c | 45.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under | 53c | 43.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 44c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 127 | 66.9%85 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe0…9946backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 61c | 22.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 54c | 21.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…b035backed Under | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Thunder vs. GrizzliesThunder won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.